Poverty in the EU 2025: Romania down 17.1 pp in a decade; Germany and France rising

Convergence: the East falls, part of the West rises

The share of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) in the European Union fell from 24.0% in 2015 to 20.9% in 2025, a decline of 3.1 pp (Eurostat). The average, however, conceals movements in opposite directions. Several eastern states recorded falls of more than 10 pp: Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. By contrast, Germany, France, Austria, Sweden and Finland have higher rates than a decade ago.

The gap between the Union's extremes has narrowed by more than 40%. In 2015, 31.5 pp separated Romania (44.5%) and Czechia (13.0%); in 2025, 17.5 pp separate Bulgaria (29.0%) and Czechia (11.5%). Across all 27 states, 22 have lower rates in 2025 than in 2015, and five have higher rates.

In 2025, nine member states are above the EU average of 20.9%: Bulgaria (29.0%), Greece (27.5%), Romania (27.4%), Lithuania (26.3%), Spain (25.7%), Latvia (24.7%), Italy (22.6%), Estonia (21.8%) and Germany (21.2%). Germany's presence in this group is the novelty of the decade: in 2015, its rate (20.0%) was 4.0 pp below the EU average.

Romania and Bulgaria: the fastest convergence towards the EU average

In 2015, Romania had the highest AROPE rate in the Union, at 44.5%, 20.5 pp above the EU average. In 2025, at 27.4%, the gap to the average had narrowed to 6.5 pp. The fall of 17.1 pp is the largest among member states. Between 2023 and 2024 alone, the rate dropped from 32.0% to 27.9%, a decline of 4.1 pp in a single year. In 2025, Romania (27.4%) fell below Greece (27.5%) for the first time in the 2015–2025 series.

Bulgaria followed a similar trajectory, from 43.3% in 2015 to 29.0% in 2025 (−14.3 pp), but remains the member state with the highest rate. Hungary fell from 30.6% to 19.5% (−11.1 pp) and is now 1.4 pp below the EU average, having been 6.6 pp above it in 2015. Poland fell from 22.5% to 15.0% (−7.5 pp) and in 2025 holds the second-best position in the EU, after Czechia (11.5%) and ahead of Slovenia (15.5%) and the Netherlands (15.8%).

Southern and western states also recorded substantial falls: Portugal from 26.4% to 18.6% (−7.8 pp), Ireland from 25.4% to 18.8% (−6.6 pp), Italy from 28.4% to 22.6% (−5.8 pp), Cyprus from 22.8% to 17.1% (−5.7 pp) and Belgium from 21.6% to 16.5% (−5.1 pp, of which 1.8 pp in 2025 alone).

The decline in the East coincided with rapid economic convergence. According to the World Bank, Romania's GDP per capita at purchasing power parity rose from 21,625 to 50,895 current international dollars between 2015 and 2025, i.e. from 56.1% to 77.7% of the EU average. Bulgaria rose from 49.0% to 67.9%, and Poland from 70.0% to 82.8% of the EU average. The data do not, however, allow the fall in poverty to be attributed solely to economic growth: the AROPE rate also includes components of material deprivation and work intensity, which are shaped by national social policies.

Germany, France, Austria: rising rates, with methodological caveats

France recorded the largest increase among member states, from 18.4% in 2015 to 20.8% in 2025 (+2.4 pp). The main jump occurred in 2022, from 19.0% to 20.7%, and the rate has remained above 20% since. In 2025, France is 0.1 pp below the EU average, compared with 5.6 pp below in 2015.

Germany rose from 20.0% in 2015 to 21.2% in 2025 (+1.2 pp). The series, however, shows an abrupt jump in 2020, from 17.3% to 20.4%, which coincides with a methodological change in the national survey. The 2015–2025 comparison should be read with this caveat. What is certain is that the German rate matched the EU average in 2023 (21.3%) and exceeded it in 2024 (21.1% versus 21.0%) and in 2025 (21.2% versus 20.9%).

Austria rose from 16.9% to 18.6%, and the entire increase of 1.7 pp occurred in 2025, the rate having still stood at 16.9% in 2024. In 2025, Sweden rose from 17.5% to 18.6% (+1.1 pp), Slovenia from 14.4% to 15.5% (+1.1 pp) and Greece from 26.9% to 27.5% (+0.6 pp). Finland went from 16.9% in 2015 to 17.2% in 2025, after a low of 14.2% in 2021.

The aggregate result is a reversal of the euro area's position relative to the Union as a whole. In 2015, the euro area (21-member composition) had an AROPE rate of 23.4%, 0.6 pp below the EU average (24.0%). In 2025, the euro area stands at 21.6%, 0.7 pp above the EU average (20.9%). The reversal mainly reflects the strong falls in states outside the euro area, notably Romania and Poland, which pulled down the Union average.

Low unemployment does not mean low poverty

Eurostat data for 2025 show no direct link between the unemployment rate and the risk of poverty or social exclusion. Bulgaria has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU, 3.5% (aged 15–74), yet the highest AROPE rate, 29.0%. Malta, with unemployment of 3.1%, has an AROPE rate of 19.4%, and Germany, with 3.8% unemployment, has 21.2%.

At the other end, Sweden (unemployment 8.8%) and Finland (9.7%) have AROPE rates of 18.6% and 17.2% respectively, below the EU average. Spain (10.5% unemployment, 25.7% AROPE) and Greece (8.9% and 27.5%), however, combine both problems.

The explanation lies in the structure of the indicator. The at-risk-of-poverty rate is relative, measured against national median income, while material deprivation depends on the level of wages and social transfers, not merely on the number of unemployed. A labour market with few unemployed but low wages and low employment can coexist with high poverty. This finding is relevant for the Republic of Moldova, where the unemployment rate estimated by the ILO and published by the World Bank for 2025 is 1.5%.

Candidate countries: Serbia falls below Romania

Among candidate countries with Eurostat data for 2025, Serbia recorded the largest fall in the entire dataset analysed: from 41.0% in 2015 to 23.2% in 2025, i.e. −17.8 pp, of which 1.1 pp in the last year alone. In 2025, Serbia's rate is below those of Romania (27.4%) and Bulgaria (29.0%), two member states. The value of 30.0% in 2016, followed by 39.3% in 2017, suggests an irregularity in the Serbian series for that year, which is why the baseline comparison is 2015–2025.

Türkiye moved in the opposite direction: from 26.7% in 2015 to a peak of 34.1% in 2020, then a decline to 29.8% in 2025. The net result is an increase of 3.1 pp over the decade, and Türkiye's 2025 rate exceeds the highest rate in the EU in the same year (Bulgaria, 29.0%).

Montenegro and North Macedonia have data only up to 2024: 29.1% and 27.1% respectively, both down from 2015 (43.8% and 41.2%). The Republic of Moldova does not appear in the Eurostat AROPE series. The NBS publishes national indicators of absolute and relative poverty, but these are not directly comparable with the AROPE rate, which requires a harmonised EU-SILC-type survey.

Implications for Moldova

Romania's experience shows that an AROPE rate of 44.5% can be reduced by 17.1 pp within a decade, against a backdrop of rapid economic growth: Romania's GDP per capita (PPP) rose from 56.1% of the EU average in 2015 to 77.7% in 2025 (World Bank). In the same year, 2025, the Republic of Moldova stands at 30.5% of the EU average (19,996 versus 65,503 international dollars), far below Romania (77.7%) and Bulgaria (67.9%).

The first implication is statistical: without an AROPE rate calculated according to the EU-SILC methodology, Moldova can neither be benchmarked against member and candidate states nor monitored against the European social target for 2030. Harmonising social statistics is therefore a precondition for any comparison of this kind.

The second implication concerns how the labour market is interpreted. The case of Bulgaria (unemployment 3.5%, AROPE 29.0% in 2025) shows that a low unemployment rate does not guarantee lower poverty. For Moldova, with unemployment of 1.5% in 2025, the relevant indicators for social convergence are income levels, household work intensity and access to basic goods and services, not the number of unemployed.

The third implication is that convergence towards the EU average is not linear, even for member states. Slovenia (from 13.2% to 15.5%), Slovakia (from 15.6% to 16.7%) and Lithuania (from 23.5% to 26.3%) have higher AROPE rates in 2025 than in 2021, while France and Austria have higher rates than in 2015. Social progress, once achieved, can therefore also be reversed.

Sources

• Eurostat
• World Bank, World Development Indicators
• National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS), statistical databank

@misc{socium20261014,
  author       = {{Socium -- Foundation for the Study of Society}},
  title        = {Poverty in the EU 2025: Romania down 17.1 pp in a decade; Germany and France rising},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {10},
  day          = {14},
  howpublished = {\url{https://socium.md/en/analyses/2026-10-14-poverty-in-the-eu-2025-romania-down-17-1-pp-in-a-decade-germany-and-france-risin/}},
  note         = {Data: Eurostat; World Bank, World Development Indicators; National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS), statistical databank},
  language     = {english}
}