Moldova's population falls by 1.75% in 2025, the steepest decline among the countries compared

Moldova at the bottom of the regional ranking in 2025

According to World Bank estimates for 2025, Moldova's population shrinks by 1.754% in a single year. This is the steepest decline among the eight territories analysed: Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Georgia, Ukraine, the EU and the world average. It contrasts sharply with the global population, which is still growing by 0.911%.

The gap with neighbouring EU member states is considerable: Bulgaria loses 0.126% of its population, Romania 0.166% and Poland 0.338%. The difference between Moldova and Poland, the member state with the largest decline in the comparison, is 1.42 pp. Relative to the EU average (+0.2%), the difference reaches 1.95 pp.

Two countries in the Eastern neighbourhood record unusually high population growth in 2025: Georgia (+3.182%) and Ukraine (+2.916%). In Ukraine's case, the figure follows the collapse of 2022 (−7.619%) and 2023 (−8.423%) and slight growth in 2024 (+0.337%). It may reflect partial returns of the population or revisions to estimates, but the present data do not allow the cause to be established and do not indicate a change in the underlying trend.

A decade of continuous decline, peaking in 2023

The World Bank series shows that Moldova's decline accelerated gradually: from −0.061% in 2014 to −0.767% in 2015 and −1.163% in 2016. Since 2016, the annual rate has never risen above −1%, meaning ten consecutive years of significant demographic loss.

The years 2022–2024 were the most severe: −2.621% in 2022, −2.843% in 2023 and −2.283% in 2024. In absolute terms, the 2023 rate is almost 47 times higher than that of 2014, although a ratio calculated against a value so close to zero should be read with caution. The 2025 rate (−1.754%) marks an easing of 1.09 pp from the 2023 peak, but remains at the level of 2017–2018 (−1.727% and −1.757%).

For interpretation, it matters that the World Bank series for Moldova incorporates national statistical revisions. In 2019 the NBS switched to the concept of usually resident population, and estimates for recent years may be revised subsequently. The direction of the trend is nonetheless robust: all 12 annual values for 2014–2025 are negative.

Neighbours have stabilised their populations; Moldova has not

Bulgaria offers the most relevant point of comparison. In 2016–2019, its annual decline was comparable to Moldova's: −1.298% in 2016 and −1.412% in 2019, against −1.163% and −1.6% in Moldova. Since 2020, the decline has eased almost continuously: −1.003% (2020), −0.665% (2021), −0.651% (2022), −0.287% (2023) and −0.08% (2024). In 2025 it steepened slightly, to −0.126%. The improvement relative to 2019 is 1.29 pp.

Romania experienced a moderate decline throughout the period, of at most 0.746% a year (2021). The rate approached zero in 2023 (+0.066%, marginal growth) and in 2024 (−0.049%), before reaching −0.166% in 2025. Poland recorded a pronounced decline only during the pandemic years (−1.192% in 2020, −1.434% in 2021), subsequently returning to values between −0.34% and −0.43%.

The European Union as a whole maintained positive growth, except in 2020 (−0.009%) and 2021 (−0.144%). It reached +0.378% in 2023 and +0.2% in 2025. The available data do not allow these trends to be decomposed into natural increase and net migration. They do show, however, that the demographic stabilisation of the Eastern member states occurred in parallel with their economic convergence: Bulgaria's GDP per capita (PPP) rose from USD 17,991 in 2014 to USD 44,451 in 2025.

Fertility does not explain the gap: Moldova's rate is above the EU average

Moldova's total fertility rate was 1.726 children per woman in 2024, compared with 1.341 in the EU, 1.14 in Poland and 1.39 in Romania. The level remains below replacement, so the birth rate contributes to the decline, but it does not explain the difference from neighbouring countries. The comparison with Bulgaria is the most instructive: fertility is practically identical (1.72 in Bulgaria), yet Moldova's demographic decline is roughly 14 times steeper (−1.754% against −0.126%).

This discrepancy points to two factors unrelated to the birth rate. The first is mortality: life expectancy at birth in Moldova was 71.332 years in 2024, 4.43 years below Bulgaria (75.761) and 10.23 years below the EU average (81.561). The second is net migration, which the dataset does not measure directly. Its scale is suggested indirectly by personal remittances received: 9.406% of GDP in 2025, compared with 2.105% in Bulgaria and 0.863% in the EU.

It should be stressed that these are correlations, not a causal decomposition. Without net migration and natural increase data for the same years and from the same source, the precise weight of each factor cannot be established from the present dataset.

The denominator effect: how population decline affects per capita indicators

Between 2014 and 2025, Moldova's GDP per capita (PPP, current international USD) rose from USD 8,643 to USD 19,996, a 2.31-fold increase. Part of this growth is real. Another part may reflect the fact that output is divided among an ever-smaller number of residents, as the population fell in every year of the period. The present data do not allow this effect to be quantified.

The comparison with Georgia illustrates the issue. Georgia's GDP per capita rose from USD 11,771 to USD 29,414 (2.5-fold) over the same period, with an almost stable population in 2014–2023 and strong growth in 2024 (+2.578%) and 2025 (+3.182%). Unlike Moldova, Georgia's per capita growth did not benefit from a shrinking denominator.

For policymakers, the implication is that convergence indicators expressed per capita should be read together with population dynamics; otherwise, economic progress may be overestimated. One example is the level of 30.5% of the EU average in 2025, calculated from the same data.

Implications for Moldova

A decline of more than 1% a year, sustained over a decade, structurally alters the taxpayer base, the labour market and demand for public services. Multi-annual budget planning, from the school network to the pension system, requires explicit demographic scenarios rather than assumptions of a constant population.

Bulgaria's experience, from −1.412% in 2019 to −0.126% in 2025, shows that a rapid easing of decline is possible in a country in the same region. The available data, however, do not identify the mechanism. An assessment of the factors behind Bulgaria's stabilisation (return migration, immigration, mortality) would be a useful study for Chișinău.

Moldova's fertility is already above the EU average and close to Bulgaria's, so pro-natalist policies alone are unlikely to reverse the trend. Judging by the structure of the indicators, the levers with greater potential relate to reducing premature mortality (a 10.2-year gap in life expectancy relative to the EU) and to the conditions that drive migration.

Demographic statistics require annual net migration data, published consistently and comparable with international series. In their absence, neither policy evaluation nor the correction of per capita indicators can be carried out rigorously.

Sources

• World Bank, World Development Indicators
• National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS), statistical databank