EU unemployment 2025: the gap between member states has narrowed from 20.6 to 7.7 points

A decade of narrowing: from 20.6 to 7.7 percentage points

The average unemployment rate in the EU-27 (aged 15-74) fell from 10.2% in 2015 to 6.0% in 2025, the same level as in 2024 (Eurostat). The average, however, conceals the more important change: the dispersion between member states.

In 2015 the distance between the state with the highest unemployment (Greece, 25.0%) and the lowest (Germany, 4.4%) was 20.6 percentage points. In 2025 the distance between Spain (10.5%) and Czechia (2.8%) is 7.7 pp — a compression of 12.9 pp in a decade.

The thresholds tell the same story. In 2015 only one member state had unemployment below 5% — Germany, at 4.4%; the next-ranked country, Czechia, stood at 5.1%. In 2025 eleven states are below that threshold: Czechia (2.8%), Malta and Poland (3.1%), Bulgaria (3.5%), Germany (3.8%), the Netherlands and Slovenia (3.9%), Cyprus and Hungary (4.4%), Ireland (4.7%) and Croatia (4.9%). At the other end, the number of states with unemployment of at least 10% has fallen from nine in 2015 to just one in 2025.

The south drove convergence, but from crisis levels

The largest reductions of the past decade belong to the states hit by the sovereign debt crisis. Greece fell by 16.1 pp (25.0% in 2015 → 8.9% in 2025), Spain by 11.6 pp (22.1% → 10.5%), Croatia by 11.3 pp (16.2% → 4.9%) and Cyprus by 10.6 pp (15.0% → 4.4%). Portugal came down from 13.0% to 6.0%, and Italy from 12.0% to 6.1%.

These trajectories account for most of the convergence: whereas in 2015 the top of the distribution consisted of southern European economies with unemployment above 15%, in 2025 no member state exceeds 10.5%.

Convergence is, however, one of levels rather than necessarily of job quality. The data used here contain no information on contract types, underemployment or wages, so falling unemployment cannot automatically be read as an equivalent improvement in working conditions.

The Nordic and Baltic counter-current: convergence 'from the top down' as well

Since 2022, part of the narrowing between states has come from deteriorating labour markets in the north and north-east of the Union. Finland rose from 6.8% in 2022 to 9.7% in 2025 (+2.9 pp), becoming the second-highest rate in the EU after Spain. Sweden rose from 7.5% to 8.8% (+1.3 pp).

Estonia, Denmark and Luxembourg each recorded an increase of 1.9 pp on 2022 (5.6% → 7.5%, 4.5% → 6.4% and 4.6% → 6.5% respectively). Even Germany rose from 3.1% in 2022 to 3.8% in 2025, and Austria from 4.8% to 5.7%.

The result is a reshuffling of the ranking: in 2015 Finland (9.4%) was below the EU-27 average (10.2%); in 2025 it exceeds the average by 3.7 pp. The Baltic states illustrate the same contrast — Latvia (6.9%) and Lithuania (6.9%) remain above the EU average, while Bulgaria, formerly a regional laggard at 10.1% in 2015, has come down to 3.5%.

Employment does not automatically mean escaping poverty

A comparison of the two indicators shows incomplete transmission. Greece cut unemployment by 16.1 pp since 2015, but the at-risk-of-poverty-or-social-exclusion rate (AROPE) fell only from 32.4% to 27.5% (−4.9 pp) and has risen by 1.4 pp compared with 2023 (26.1%). Spain cut unemployment by 11.6 pp, but AROPE by only 3.0 pp (28.7% → 25.7%).

The relationship also works in reverse. Romania reduced unemployment modestly, from 8.4% in 2015 to 6.1% in 2025 (−2.3 pp), yet AROPE fell by 17.1 pp, from 44.5% to 27.4% — the largest reduction in the EU over the period analysed, a sign that income levels and social transfers matter at least as much as the volume of employment.

Germany is the opposite case: with unemployment of 3.8% in 2025, the fifth-lowest in the EU, it has an AROPE rate of 21.2%, above the EU-27 average of 20.9% and 1.2 pp above its 2015 level (20.0%). Note, however, the break in series: the German jump from 17.3% (2019) to 20.4% (2020) coincides with a methodological change in the national survey, so comparisons before and after 2020 for Germany must be treated with caution.

The link between the two indicators is not deterministic: Czechia simultaneously has the lowest unemployment (2.8%) and the lowest AROPE rate (11.5%) in the EU in 2025, while Bulgaria combines very low unemployment (3.5%) with the highest AROPE rate (29.0%).

Moldova against the mirror of European convergence

For the Republic of Moldova, a candidate country, a direct comparison of the unemployment rate with member states is misleading. The ILO estimate published by the World Bank indicates 1.5% in 2025 (1.4% in 2024) — a level that reflects high inactivity and emigration rather than a labour market performing better than Czechia's. Eurostat data on harmonised unemployment do not cover Moldova, and the AROPE indicator is not available for Moldova in the Eurostat dataset analysed.

The income gap remains the main obstacle to convergence: in 2025 GDP per capita at purchasing power parity stood at 19,996 international dollars in Moldova, against an EU average of 65,503 dollars (30.5%), 50,895 dollars in Romania and 44,451 dollars in Bulgaria (World Bank). The world average, 25,704 dollars, still stands above Moldova's level.

Dependence on remittances is falling but remains structural: 9.4% of GDP in 2025, compared with 22.1% in 2014 and 16.3% in 2019 (World Bank) — almost 11 times the EU average (0.86% in 2025). In Georgia, the other Eastern Partnership candidate country, remittances accounted for 11.2% of GDP in 2025.

In health the distance is equally visible: life expectancy at birth was 72.0 years in Moldova in 2024, against an EU-27 average of 81.5 years (Eurostat) — a gap of 9.5 years. Income inequality, by contrast, is comparatively low: Moldova's Gini index stood at 26.8 in 2023, below Romania (29.8) and well below Bulgaria (39.5).

Implications for Moldova

First, the experience of member states shows that convergence with the EU on the labour market is measured through harmonised indicators, not through national registered unemployment rates. Full alignment with the labour force survey and EU-SILC — including the publication of a comparable AROPE indicator — would allow objective monitoring of social convergence during the accession process; at present Moldova is absent from both Eurostat series analysed here.

Second, the Romanian case (AROPE −17.1 pp between 2015 and 2025, with relatively stable unemployment, from 8.4% to 6.1%) shows that reducing poverty risk depends on income levels and social transfers, not only on job creation. For Moldova, where rural employment and agricultural incomes are the main sources of vulnerability, calibrating social benefits remains an instrument with direct effect.

Third, rising unemployment in states with traditionally tight labour markets — Finland +2.9 pp, Estonia, Denmark and Luxembourg +1.9 pp each since 2022 — signals that labour demand in the EU is not guaranteed over the long term. Scenarios for remittances (9.4% of GDP in 2025) and circular migration should also be built on the assumption of a less absorptive European market.

Fourth, closing the income gap is a long-term process: Moldova's GDP per capita at PPP rose from 23.9% of the EU average in 2015 (9,198 dollars against 38,552 dollars) to 30.5% in 2025, that is +6.6 pp in a decade. At this pace, income convergence would take several decades, which is why public policies can be assessed more realistically against intermediate social indicators — employment, life expectancy, poverty risk — than against catching up on GDP per capita.

Sources

• Eurostat — database (unemployment, AROPE, life expectancy)
• World Bank — World Development Indicators
• National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS)