GDP per capita: Moldova at 30.5% of the EU average and 39% of Romania's level in 2025

The 2025 ranking: Moldova second from last, at 30.5% of the EU average

World Bank data for 2025 place Moldova second from last in the group analysed, with GDP per capita of 19,995.8 international dollars at purchasing power parity (PPP). The EU average is 65,503.1 PPP dollars, which puts Moldova at 30.5% of the European level. Only Ukraine ranks below Moldova, with 18,905.0 PPP dollars (−5.5% relative to Moldova).

The gap with Moldova's immediate EU neighbour is the most salient public benchmark: Romania recorded 50,895.1 PPP dollars in 2025, 2.55 times more than Moldova. In absolute terms, the difference is 30,899 PPP dollars per capita per year. Against Poland (54,262.4) the ratio is 1 to 2.71, and against Bulgaria (44,451.1) — the poorest member state in the comparison group — 1 to 2.22.

Regional comparisons outside the EU are equally unfavourable: Georgia reached 29,414.4 PPP dollars in 2025, 47.1% above Moldova. Even the world average (25,703.7 PPP dollars) is 28.5% higher than the Moldovan level; Moldova stands at 77.8% of the global average.

The pace of convergence: closing in relative terms, falling behind in absolute terms

Between 2014 and 2025, Moldova's GDP per capita at PPP rose from 8,643.1 to 19,995.8 international dollars, an increase of 131.4%. This is faster than the EU (+75.3%, from 37,363.4 to 65,503.1) and Ukraine (+80.2%), but slower than Georgia (+149.9%), Bulgaria (+147.1%) and Romania (+146.7%).

Expressed as a share of the EU average, Moldova rose from 23.1% (2014) to 30.5% (2025), a gain of 7.4 percentage points over 11 years, or roughly 0.67 pp per year. Over the same period Romania advanced from 55.2% to 77.7% (+22.5 pp), Bulgaria from 48.2% to 67.9% (+19.7 pp), Poland from 68.1% to 82.8% (+14.7 pp) and Georgia from 31.5% to 44.9% (+13.4 pp). Ukraine stagnated: 28.1% in 2014, 28.9% in 2025.

The arithmetic paradox of convergence is that the absolute gap deepens even as the relative one narrows: the difference between the EU average and Moldova grew from 28,720 PPP dollars in 2014 to 45,507 PPP dollars in 2025, up 58.4%. A purely mechanical extrapolation of the 0.67 pp annual pace would imply more than a century before the EU average is reached; the figure is not a forecast but an illustration of the order of magnitude of the convergence effort required.

One benchmark has shifted in Moldova's favour: until 2021, Ukraine's GDP per capita at PPP was higher (17,846.4 against 15,682.1 in 2021). From 2022 the order reversed (Moldova 16,442.1 against Ukraine 14,767.7), and in 2025 Moldova leads by 5.8%. The overtaking reflects the contraction of the Ukrainian economy under wartime conditions, not an acceleration in Moldova.

Remittances: the growth model is thinning, but still second in the region

The share of remittances in Moldova's GDP fell from 22.1% in 2014 to 9.4% in 2025 — a reduction of 12.7 pp, the largest in the comparison group. The decline is almost continuous year on year, with a single plateau between 2019 and 2020 (16.3% in both years); it was followed by 14.0% in 2022, 12.0% in 2023 and 10.5% in 2024.

Even after this adjustment, dependence remains far above EU levels. In 2024 Moldova (10.5% of GDP) ranked second in the region, behind Georgia (11.9%), above Ukraine (6.3%) and well above Romania (2.5%), Bulgaria (2.3%), Poland (0.9%) and the EU average (0.8%). In other words, the weight of remittances in Moldova's economy is about 12.8 times the European average.

In parallel, the average monthly gross wage reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova (NBS) reached 796 euros in 2025, compared with 219.5 euros in 2014 — a 3.6-fold increase in currency terms. The available data do not include comparable average wages for the EU, so a direct wage ranking cannot be constructed from this dataset.

Low inequality, low incomes: a Gini of 26.8 against 39.5 in Bulgaria

Moldova reports the lowest Gini coefficient among the countries in the group with recent data: 26.8 in 2023, against 28.5 in Poland, 29.8 in Romania (both 2023), 33.9 in Georgia (2024) and 39.5 in Bulgaria (2023). Ukraine recorded 25.6 in 2020, the latest year available, a lower value but not comparable in terms of reference year. In Moldova the indicator has fluctuated between 25.0 (2020) and 27.0 (2015), with no clear trend.

Comparability is limited, however: for Moldova and Ukraine the indicator is generally based on household consumption surveys, whereas for EU member states it is based on income from the EU-SILC survey. Consumption-based indicators tend to show lower inequality. The prudent conclusion is that Moldova does not have a problem of extreme dispersion in living standards, but one of level: incomes are distributed relatively evenly, but around a low average.

The same methodological caveat applies to poverty. The NBS reports an absolute poverty rate of 31.1% nationally for 2025 (40.0% in rural areas, 21.1% in urban areas), while Eurostat measures the risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE): 20.9% in the EU-27, 27.4% in Romania, 29.0% in Bulgaria and 15.0% in Poland in 2025. The two indicators are not interchangeable, and Moldova does not appear in the AROPE series.

The labour market: low unemployment, low participation

On paper, Moldova has the lowest unemployment in the region: 3.8% in 2025 (ILO definition, aged 15 and over, NBS), compared with 6.0% in the EU-27, 6.1% in Romania, 3.5% in Bulgaria and 3.1% in Poland (Eurostat, 2025). Georgia stands at 12.1% (ILO estimate reproduced by the World Bank, 2025), while for Ukraine the latest available figure is 9.8% (2021).

The figure must be read together with participation. The activity rate for the population aged 15 and over was 41.8% in 2025, down from 44.5% in 2024, while the employment rate stood at 40.2%, against 42.7% in 2024. For the 15-64 age group, activity was 52.3% and employment 50.3% in 2025. Low unemployment accompanied by inactivity of 58.2% (aged 15 and over) points to a labour force depleted by migration and withdrawal from the market rather than to a tight labour market in any positive sense.

The dataset also contains a useful warning: the ILO estimate reproduced by the World Bank puts Moldovan unemployment at 1.5% in 2025, against 3.8% in the NBS survey. The difference between sources is 2.3 pp and shows that international rankings on this indicator should be used with caution.

Implications for Moldova

First: the convergence target is not only the EU average, but the trajectory of neighbouring countries. Between 2014 and 2025, Romania closed 22.5 pp of the gap to the EU average, Bulgaria 19.7 pp and Moldova 7.4 pp. Any assessment of economic policy needs a benchmark for speed, not only for level.

Second: the fall in remittances from 22.1% to 9.4% of GDP changes the structure of domestic demand. If private transfers shrink, the source of funding for household consumption must be replaced by labour income and investment, which ties the convergence agenda directly to productivity and employment.

Third: an employment rate of 40.2% (aged 15 and over, 2025) mechanically caps GDP per capita. At the same level of productivity, a broader employment base would generate higher GDP per capita; conversely, the 2.7 pp fall in the activity rate between 2024 and 2025 (and the 2.5 pp fall in the employment rate) works against convergence.

Fourth: Moldova's absence from comparable EU series — AROPE, EU-SILC income indicators, harmonised wage statistics — makes an objective assessment of social progress relative to member states difficult. Methodological alignment of social statistics is in itself a precondition for monitoring the accession process.

Sources

• World Bank, World Development Indicators
• Eurostat, online database
• National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova, statistical databank