Income inequality: Moldova's Gini at 26.8 in 2023 — 12.7 points below Bulgaria

A regional ranking in which Moldova comes first — on equality

The Gini index measures how unequally income (or consumption) is distributed within a country: 0 denotes perfect equality, 100 the total concentration of resources in the hands of a single person. According to the World Bank, Moldova recorded a Gini of 26.8 in 2023, the lowest among the Eastern European countries with recent data in the dataset analysed.

Regional differences are considerable. Bulgaria recorded a Gini of 39.5 in 2023, 12.7 points above Moldova. Georgia stood at 33.9 in 2024, 7.1 points above the Moldovan level. Romania (29.8 in 2023) and Poland (28.5 in 2023) are closer, at 3.0 and 1.7 points' distance respectively.

Ukraine formally remains the most egalitarian in the group, at 25.6 in 2020, but the series stops there: for the years after 2020 the World Bank data analysed here contain no Gini index values. The range of the ranking — from 25.6 to 39.5 — is 13.9 points.

Ten years, four different trajectories

Between 2014 and 2023, Moldova had the most stable distribution in the group: the Gini started at 26.8, rose to 27.0 in 2015, reached a low of 25.0 in 2020 and returned to 26.8 in 2023. Over the decade as a whole the net change is nil, and the gap between the maximum and minimum values is 2.0 points.

Romania underwent the largest correction: from 36.0 in 2014 to 29.8 in 2023, a fall of 6.2 points concentrated in the final years of the series (33.9 in 2021, 32.3 in 2022, 29.8 in 2023). Poland declined more slowly and earlier, from 32.8 in 2014 to 28.5 in 2023 (−4.3 points), with a plateau around 28.5 after 2019.

Bulgaria is the exception: its Gini rose from 37.4 in 2014 to a peak of 41.3 in 2018, then fluctuated, ending at 39.5 in 2023 — 2.1 points above its starting point. In this case economic growth was not accompanied by a reduction in inequality; the two phenomena do not stand in any mechanical relationship.

Georgia reduced inequality from 37.6 in 2014 to 33.9 in 2024 (−3.7 points), while nonetheless remaining the second most unequal country in the group.

Equality, but at what income level

A low Gini tells us how income is shared, not how large it is. In 2025, Moldova's GDP per capita at purchasing power parity stood at 19,995.8 international dollars, or 77.8% of the world average (25,703.7) and 30.5% of the EU average (65,503.1), according to the World Bank.

Comparison with neighbours in the group reveals the same gap: Romania recorded 50,895.1 international dollars per capita in 2025 (2.5 times Moldova's level), Poland 54,262.4, Bulgaria 44,451.1 and Georgia 29,414.4 — 47.1% above Moldova.

Progress in its own terms does exist, however: between 2014 and 2025, Moldova's GDP per capita at PPP rose from 8,643.1 to 19,995.8 international dollars, a 2.31-fold increase (current values, therefore including the effect of prices). In 2025, Moldova overtakes Ukraine (18,905.0), having been 2,164.3 international dollars below it in 2021 — a reversal linked in large part to the contraction of the Ukrainian economy in 2022, when the indicator fell to 14,767.7.

The Moldovan combination is therefore one of a "relatively even distribution at a low absolute level". A household in the middle of the distribution is less distant from the top than in Bulgaria, but also has a smaller basket of goods than the world average.

What the Gini index does not capture

The first limitation is temporal: the latest available values differ from one country to another — 2024 for Georgia, 2023 for Moldova, Romania, Poland and Bulgaria, 2020 for Ukraine. An "up-to-date" ranking is in fact a ranking of the latest available observations.

The second limitation concerns the basis of calculation. Inequality statistics are built on household surveys, and some countries report the distribution of income, others of consumption; the results are not perfectly comparable and tend to show lower inequality when measured on consumption.

The third limitation is migration. Remittances accounted for 9.4% of Moldova's GDP in 2025 and 16.3% in 2019 (World Bank) and enter household budgets, influencing the measured distribution — but those who have emigrated do not appear in the surveys. The fact that Moldova and Georgia, both economies with large remittances (11.2% of GDP in Georgia in 2025), have such different Gini levels (26.8 against 33.9) shows that the relationship is neither simple nor automatic: it requires separate study rather than a causal explanation.

Finally, household surveys typically under-represent very high incomes — a recognised methodological limitation, which suggests that actual levels of inequality may be higher than reported in all the countries compared.

Implications for Moldova

The first implication: poverty reduction policy and inequality reduction policy do not overlap. With a Gini of 26.8 in 2023, the social gain to be had from additional redistribution is smaller than in Bulgaria (39.5); the relevant emphasis shifts to raising the absolute level of incomes, where Moldova stands at 77.8% of the world average in 2025.

The second: monitoring must be annual and comparable. The absence of inequality data for Ukraine after 2020 shows how quickly a regional picture becomes opaque; maintaining Moldova's household survey series with a stable methodology is a precondition for any impact assessment.

The third: the experience of Romania (−6.2 Gini points between 2014 and 2023) and that of Bulgaria (+2.1 points over the same period) suggest that the trajectory of inequality during economic convergence is not predetermined — a subject that deserves analysis using comparable data on income components.

The fourth: distribution indicators must be read alongside indicators of external dependence. As long as remittances account for 9.4% of GDP (2025), part of the domestic distributive balance depends on labour markets outside the country, and thus on factors over which national policy has limited control.

Sources

• World Bank, World Development Indicators